The Ukrainian government has approved key macroeconomic indicators for the country's economic and social development through 2028, outlining two distinct scenarios.

This information is detailed in resolution No. 946 dated August 6, 2025.

According to the first scenario, the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, with inflation projected at 8.6%. The alternative scenario predicts a GDP growth of only 2.4% with an inflation rate of 9.9%.

The more optimistic scenario anticipates an acceleration of GDP growth to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, while inflation is expected to decrease to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

The less optimistic scenario indicates a GDP increase of 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, with inflation declining to 9.7% and 7.5%.

According to the first scenario, it is projected that 13 million individuals aged 15-70 will be employed in 2026, rising to 13.2 million in two years, while the second scenario suggests these figures will be 0.2 million lower.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027 before declining to 12.8% in 2028 according to the first scenario, while the second scenario forecasts a gradual increase from 12.6% next year to 13.1% in two years.

The nominal average monthly salary, adjusted for inflation, is projected to increase by 6.5-8.9% annually under the first scenario, compared to 4.6-5.1% in the second scenario.

The resolution does not specify which scenario serves as the baseline for preparing the state budget for 2026.