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Forecast for Grain Harvest in Ukraine for 2025/26

A detailed forecast of the production of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine for the 2025/26 marketing year.

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In Ukraine, during the 2025/26 marketing year, the harvest of grains and oilseeds is expected to reach 83 million tons, marking a 5.5% increase from the previous year. This forecast was provided by Mykola Horbachev, the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

Horbachev noted that the primary driver of this growth will be corn, which looks very promising. He reached these conclusions after visiting several regions to assess crop conditions, indicating that there are no risks for grain and oilseed production.

However, there may be delays in the harvest due to insufficient growing degree days. The corn harvest may not commence in August, but rather toward the end of September or early October.

Horbachev expressed optimism about the yield potential, stating, "If no extreme weather events occur, we should be able to achieve an excellent harvest."

It is anticipated that corn production in 2025/26 will be 29.26 million tons, with exports reaching 24 million tons. Under favorable weather conditions, the association is prepared to revise these figures, potentially increasing gross yield estimates to 30 million tons.

For wheat, the association expects production to remain at 22.5 million tons, with exports of 16.5 million tons. Barley is expected to produce around 4.9 million tons, with exports of 2.3 million tons.

Horbachev also mentioned that winter rapeseed has fared poorly over the winter. The areas that became available were mostly planted with sunflowers and corn, which will lead to an increase in the production of these crops. The rapeseed output for 2025/26 is estimated at 3 million tons, with exports of 2.6 million tons.

The sunflower harvest is projected at nearly 15 million tons, compared to 12.7 million tons last season, with exports reaching 14.8 million tons. Soy production is expected to be at 6.23 million tons, with exports of 4 million tons.