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Current Oil Market Trends: What Lies Ahead?

An overview of current trends in the oil market, particularly the impact of geopolitical factors on prices.

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WTI oil prices are experiencing a weekly increase amid escalating tensions between the USA and Venezuela, along with anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. According to Reuters,
Brent crude prices fell by 14 cents, or 0.2%, settling at $63.12 per barrel.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.49 per barrel, yet it recorded a weekly increase of approximately 1.6%.
«The market is weighing the impact of reduced exports from the CPC and some positive demand news that might accompany a potential Fed rate cut,» said senior LSEG analyst Anh Pham, referring to decreased supplies of Kazakh oil following a drone attack on the CPC's Black Sea terminal.
According to him, supply factors remain in focus. «A potential peace agreement with Russia could bring more barrels to the market and likely lower prices. On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will lead to price increases. OPEC+ has agreed to maintain steady production levels until early next year, which also supports prices,» Pham added.
This week, prices rose in part due to the failure of US negotiations in Moscow, where no significant breakthroughs on the Ukraine war were achieved, the publication notes.
Markets are preparing for a possible US military intervention in Venezuela after President Donald Trump stated late last week that the US would take actions against Venezuelan drug traffickers «very soon».
Rystad Energy reports that this could jeopardize the supply of 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day that Venezuela primarily exports to China.