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Forecast of Utility Rate Increases by the National Bank

The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates utility rates will rise starting in 2026, despite keeping current prices steady in 2023.

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The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that utility rates may increase in the coming years, particularly from 2026 onwards.

This is mentioned in the inflation report released in April.

Current rates for gas, heating, and hot water are expected to remain unchanged this year.

"However, the challenging situation in the energy sector and the need for fiscal consolidation will likely lead to gradual adjustments of these rates in the coming years. Specifically, it is anticipated that from 2026 onwards, these rates will be aligned with economically justified levels", the statement says.

It is noted that delaying the increase may result in lower inflation but could worsen the financial condition of state energy companies.

"At the same time, risks of instability in the energy market will grow, reducing the sector's investment potential, and price pressures will only be deferred to the future", the NBU added.

Conversely, a swift and significant rise in energy prices to eliminate disparities in the energy sector could intensify inflationary pressures and necessitate increased subsidies for the population, bankers believe.

As a reminder:

"Naftogaz of Ukraine" has extended the "Fixed Tariff" for gas supply to the population until April 2026.

From May 31, a price of 4.32 UAH/kWh for electricity has been set for all residents of Ukraine, regardless of consumption volume.